Planning fallacy

◇ Planning fallacy

Errors that cost more money and effort than was actually planned because of the optimism about what was to come. It is also referred to as the "optimistic bias."

1. Looking at the construction of an opera house in Sydney, Australia, the opera house was planned for 1957. 

The original construction was to be completed in 1963 at a cost of 7.7 billion won, but the actual opening year was 1973, 10 years behind schedule. (1$ = 1200 won)

The cost of the injection also cost 110 billion won, more than 10 times the estimated cost. Their plan is also a clear "planning error."

2. Canadian psychologist Roger Bueller and his team of researchers conducted an experiment on senior students, and Bueller asked two questions when students were required to write one graduation thesis each in the last semester.

"How long will it take to complete the paper if everything goes well?"

"How long will it take to complete the paper if everything doesn't go well?"

In response to the two questions, the students answered that it will likely take 24.7 and 48.6 days. However, it took only 30 percent of the students who submitted the paper for the period they talked about, and it took as long as 55.5 days for most of the students to submit the paper.

While they underestimated the time and risk required to achieve their goals, they created a plan that they could not keep as a result of overconfidence in their abilities. Planning errors arise from knowing that you think of a plan too easily, but still believe that you can keep it on your own. 

◇ 戒愼乎其所不睹

The more a person does not see, the more careful he or she should be. 

#Planning fallacy